Imagine trying to build a house on a foundation of sand while a storm rages around you. That's essentially what's happening in Myanmar right now, as the military junta pushes forward with elections widely condemned as a 'sham exercise.' But what's really at stake here, and why does the international community view these elections with such skepticism?
On Sunday, amidst the ongoing turmoil and conflict that has gripped the nation since the 2021 coup, voters in Myanmar participated in the second phase of elections orchestrated by the military junta. This follows a first round plagued by low voter turnout and widespread criticism, with many viewing the entire process as a calculated move to solidify the junta's grip on power.
To understand the gravity of the situation, consider this: Myanmar has been deeply scarred by conflict ever since the military overthrew the civilian government in 2021. This coup led to the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and then-leader of the country, triggering a brutal civil war that continues to devastate much of this nation of 51 million people. The fighting has not only cost countless lives but has also displaced millions from their homes.
And this is the part most people miss: The legitimacy of any election hinges on the ability of all parties to participate freely and fairly. In Myanmar's case, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which overwhelmingly won the 2020 election, has been dissolved, along with numerous other anti-junta parties. Their crime? Failing to register for these very elections. Furthermore, various rebel groups fighting against the junta have outright refused to participate, further undermining the process.
Unsurprisingly, the United Nations, numerous Western nations, and human rights organizations have unequivocally denounced these elections as a 'sham exercise.' They argue that the absence of genuine opposition and the suppression of dissenting voices render the entire process neither free, fair, nor credible. But here's where it gets controversial... The junta maintains that these elections are a necessary step towards restoring stability and paving the way for a brighter future for Myanmar. Is there any possibility that this claim could hold some weight?
The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) appears to be heading for a resounding victory. They secured a significant lead after winning 90 out of the 102 lower house seats contested in the first phase, which took place on December 28th. However, the voter turnout of just 52.13% was significantly lower than in the 2020 and 2015 elections, casting further doubt on the legitimacy of the process. Richard Horsey, a senior Myanmar advisor for Crisis Group, aptly stated that the USDP is on track for a 'landslide victory' due to the playing field being heavily tilted in its favor, including the removal of serious rivals and laws designed to stifle opposition.
The final round of voting is scheduled for January 25th. In total, voting will occur in 265 out of Myanmar's 330 townships, including areas where the junta's control is far from absolute. The junta insists that these elections will bring much-needed political stability and a better future for the country, which is currently grappling with one of the most severe humanitarian crises in Asia. According to the Armed Conflict Location + Event Data Project, at least 16,600 civilians have perished in the conflict since the coup, and the UN estimates that a staggering 3.6 million people have been displaced.
Analysts, however, remain deeply skeptical. They warn that the junta's attempt to establish a stable administration amidst ongoing conflict is fraught with peril. They also suggest that any government controlled by the military is unlikely to garner widespread international recognition.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing recently avoided answering a reporter's question about his personal political ambitions. Instead, he hailed the elections as a success during a visit to a central Myanmar township, urging authorities to boost voter turnout even further. State media quoted him as saying that the high number of votes cast in the first phase demonstrated the people's strong desire to participate in the democratic process, thus justifying the claim that the election was a success.
But is it truly a success if the process is perceived as rigged and excludes significant portions of the population? Given the context of the ongoing civil war and the exclusion of key political players, can these elections genuinely be considered a step towards a more stable and democratic Myanmar? What role should the international community play in addressing this situation? Share your thoughts and perspectives in the comments below.
